An Idaho Primary Prediction

You’ve got crazies on one side, and dullards on the other.  I realize I’m offering a generalization, and that some people are quite normal and hardly dull.  And some candidates appealing to the loonies may be solid, but realize they can ride the wave of conspiracy theories to victory.  Politics is a circus.  That hasn’t changed, but what is different this time around is that people supposedly in the know aren’t making predictions.  I’ve asked candidates if they’re getting a vibe, and they’ve told me they just don’t get a feeling.  When I talk with people in the media, the answer is the same.

Anger Drives the Outcome

People, in my opinion, are still angry.  Everywhere, and this was evident in recent election outcomes as diverse as Indiana and Great Britain.  Here in Idaho, much of that anger, as well as conspiracy theories, has coalesced around the Branch Glennedians.  There are pockets elsewhere, but old-time political watchers have seemed surprised it took hold in the Magic Valley, versus the panhandle or the Treasure Valley.  As crazed as a focus on chemtrails may appear, the opposition promises to work for Idaho families.  Does that sound like a tired old trope?  Same-old, same-old, and not very imaginative.

There are Signs of Intense Interest in the Results

I voted early.  I’m told Twin Falls County had a better early turnout than Ada County.  I told a couple of politicians this week that we’ll see a split.  Half the Glennedians will be sent back to Boise, and the other half will be sent packing.  Two and two in the Magic Valley, and then likely a split in District 8, and between the two remaining gang members in the Treasure Valley.  Friends who live there have explained that the campaigns have been very quiet.  Which is a shame.  Politics and government should be boisterous, as a reflection of our culture.

I don’t bet, but if I were asked to go out on a limb, I suspect Representatives David Leavitt and Clint Hostetler are returned due to lackluster opposition.  Otherwise, all bets are off.