A Prediction for a Cold Winter in Idaho Misses the Mark

Trying to forecast winter weather in September is like predicting the winners on the opening weekend of the college football season.  Top-ranked teams have made numerous changes since last year, and it’s really a guess as to how the clubs will perform on the field.

Weather Predictions are Similar to Sports Forecasts

Weather variables have changed, too.  I watched a video on Labor Day from a forecaster who said the Polar Vortex is the unknown going into this winter.  Variables in the Pacific Ocean will cause instability in the polar atmosphere, and wild things may happen as a result.

You can watch the video below.

I do take issue with one of his maps.  He predicts the Northwest will be cooler and wetter.  The map includes Idaho, but he says this pattern will impact the territory west of the Cascades, which means considerably west of Idaho.

Our Geography is a Bit More Complex

I gather we’ll be cooler and drier.  The Midwest and Great Lakes will probably bear the brunt of Arctic air.  This week is a preview of that pattern, as cooler air has settled in from the Dakotas to Western New York State.

I’ve lived in that part of the world and have experienced temperatures that never rose above zero for days at a time.

A friend in Florida asked me about Idaho winters over the weekend, and I responded that aside from the mountains, the weather was quite mild compared to areas even in the Mid-Atlantic, where I lived for seven years.  I experienced more snow and cold in the Tidewater Region on average than I’ve ever seen here.