PREDICTION: Idaho Wildfires Will Get Much Worse

It’s dry.  It may stay dry for quite some time.  Last week I shared a story about some scientists who claim this is the worst drought in 1,200 years.  They base this on very dry soil in the high desert.   We’re also twenty-two years into a drought cycle that often lasts 30 years.  Some cycles last much longer.  These are historic cycles and predate human life.  They also predate industrialization.  The scientists claim man-made activity is responsible for making the current cycle drier than previous bouts of drought.

Now comes a report that says wildfires will be growing increasingly intense.  Let’s start by acknowledging the sources aren’t well trusted in this corner of America.  The study was released by the United Nations and was reported by the Washington Post (among others in media).  Initially, I saw the story in the Post.  You can read it by clicking here.  It suggests intensity will grow throughout the century and be 50 percent worse by 2100.

Computer Models, Mediums and Ouija Boards

The usual computer modeling is the trusted ally of scientists.  If it doesn’t pan out, they’ll move the goalpost.  If the west does burn to a crisp, they’ll have a touchdown celebration.

What Caused the Last Big Drought?

Tree rings are used as one method of measuring past droughts.  As one current skeptic asked me, what man-made activity caused the nasty drought during the 800s?  Clearly, none.  It may be related to volcanic eruptions (there was a nasty series in the 500s) or solar activity or it’s built into the planetary system.  His question is a common one and it promotes the sowing of doubt.