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You realize an unexpected shooting war or a very cold winter could scotch all predictions, although.  The declines we’re seeing in gasoline prices, a quite dramatic plunge in December, could continue well into next year.  A writer at OilPrice.com shares one factor.  You can read details by clicking here.

This could lead to a stable floor where prices could hold for some time (or until the next real or manufactured global emergency!)

Two OPEC nations are moving forward with plans to put a massive field back online.  OPEC members often try and push the cost per barrel higher by limiting supply.  It may have worked 15 years ago but isn’t a foolproof strategy any longer.  This is due to vastly increased oil production from the United States.

If you can’t make money on scarcity then another option is selling more oil at the lower margin.  With a US-China trade war potentially coming to an end, oil demand, which has been soft in Asia, is expected to rebound.  This could lead to a stable floor where prices could hold for some time (or until the next real or manufactured global emergency!)

In some shale oil boom towns in the United States there are wells being capped.  This is usually portrayed as a negative but if you stop and consider a capped well is available if needed, then your home country has a reserve.

And we rarely ever speak about the oil reserves we simply don’t touch.  Especially offshore.  I’m a believer some alternative energies will someday replace our current reliance on oil but future growth will demand a number of sources.  Energy makes the world go around and for the time being, oil simply provides the greatest amount of available energy we can get from any given source.  It’s going to be that way for another 50 years.  A day will come when solar and hydrogen will unleash great potential.  I just don’t expect it in my lifetime.